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President
George W. Bush is losing ground with the public in his efforts to
build support for private retirement accounts in Social Security...
Despite Bush's intensive campaign to promote the
idea, the percentage of Americans who say they favor private
accounts has tumbled to 46% in Pew's latest nationwide survey, down
from 54% in December and 58% in September. Support has declined as
the public has become increasingly aware of the president's plan.
More than four-in-ten (43%) say they have heard a lot about the
proposal, nearly double the number who said that in December (23%).
The new poll indicates that the Social Security debate is packing a
powerful political punch. It finds that just 29% of Americans
approve of the way that Bush is handling the issue. This is the
president's lowest approval rating for any policy area, and is
considerably lower than his overall job approval rating of 46%.
Moreover, by a 65%-25% margin, most say the president has not
explained his Social Security proposal clearly enough.
Further, the public expresses much more confidence on this issue in
the AARP, which is strongly opposed to private accounts, than they
do in the president or in Republican congressional leaders. However,
Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan, who has offered a
qualified endorsement of Bush's plan, also is widely trusted on
Social Security. And while just 42% say they mostly trust Bush on
Social Security, Democratic congressional leaders earn no more trust
than the president (41%).
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People
& the Press, conducted Feb. 16-21 among 1,502 Americans, suggests
that the public agrees with Bush that the Social Security system is
facing funding problems. Two-thirds (67%) think that the Social
Security program will run short of money in the future.
Yet even among supporters of private retirement accounts, the
proposal's major appeal is not that it will make the program more
financially secure. More than half of the supporters of private
accounts (52%) say they favor the idea mainly because private
accounts will give individuals greater control; just 20% support
private accounts because they will make Social Security more
financially stable.
Among opponents of private accounts, nearly half (48%) worry about
potentially risky investments. A significant number also cite the
possibility that guaranteed benefits will have to be cut (28%). And
15% say the main reason for their opposition is that establishing
private accounts will increase the federal budget deficit.
Over the past two months, support for private retirement accounts
has declined among most demographic and political groups.
But the erosion has been especially steep among Hispanics (down 18
points since December), conservative and moderate Democrats (down 17
points), and people age 65 and older (15 points).
Support among African Americans for private accounts also has
slipped from 50% to 36%, despite Bush's concerted efforts to promote
his plan with blacks.
The president finds the greatest support for his plan among his
fellow Republicans (68% favor private accounts) and among people
under 30 (66% favor). Opinion among these groups has remained
relatively stable since December.
The survey includes other findings that may portend trouble for
private accounts. At this stage, opponents of the plan are more
fixed in their attitudes than those who favor this option. A 68%
majority of those who oppose the plan say they feel strongly and
will not change their minds. In contrast, just 53% of backers are
strongly in favor, with as many as 45% saying they could change
their opinions and oppose private accounts.
In terms of other possible Social Security changes, there is
considerable public opposition to proposals that would raise the
retirement age (72% opposed), reduce the rate of benefit growth
(64%), and raise payroll taxes (56%).
The only possible changes tested that win majority support are those
aimed at wealthy Americans. Six-in-ten favor applying the payroll
tax to all wages, which would scrap the current limit of $90,000;
and 58% would limit Social Security benefits for wealthy Americans
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