Inside the Gambler's mind: Not knowing when to fold ‘em

The more people gamble, the more likely they are to mistakenly believe they can increase their chances at winning through some form of skill or luck, according to a recently published research paper by Drake University psychology professors W. Scott Wood and Maria Clapham.

In a scientific survey of Iowa gamblers that included responses from both the general public and problem gamblers, Wood and Clapham found that the two most common incorrect beliefs associated with gambling are that the player possesses some sort of control over games of chance by the illusion of game-playing skills or through some form of magical or superstitious influence.

“Gamblers often display what psychologists call ‘cognitive errors,’” said Wood, who grew up near Las Vegas. “The first belief is an illusion of control. For example, they may believe that if they watch slots closely and see one lose over and over then the machine is ‘due’ for a payout. Or they may think that they have a particular skill in playing a particular casino game or another. Such beliefs are incorrect.”

A slot machine is programmed to pay out randomly. It has nothing to do with a gambler holds the handle or whether it paid out five times before the gambler sat down or lost 50 times in a row, Wood said.

Roulette wheels and dice don’t favor lucky numbers either, and a gambler can’t predict what number will come up next regardless of which came up last. There simply is no kind of skill or knowledge that helps you win a game of chance, Wood said.

“The second cognitive error is superstition,” Wood said. “This is a belief that has do with how lucky you are. For example, if you have a good luck charm – a coin or favorite shirt – and believe it has any bearing on how the game plays out, that’s another cognitive error.”

The more someone gambles – even when not at a problem level – the more likely he or she is to display these cognitive errors, Wood’s and Clapham’s research shows. Not surprisingly, casinos and gambling establishments design their environments to take advantage of such thinking.

For example, Wood said, slot machines can be designed to feature a popular game show or TV series such as “Wheel of Fortune” or “The Beverly Hillbillies.” Gamblers could believe their familiarity with those programs favor their success playing these games.

“And at every casino, you’ll see winning numbers posted,” Wood said. “A gambler may think, ‘Low numbers are coming up a lot today. That’s a good play.’ Or the player may think it means that high numbers are coming due. Both are wrong. It’s all completely random.”

Wood notes that he is neither pro- nor anti-gambling; he studies gambling. He does believe, however, that the more information the public has about gambling, the better decisions people can make while playing or in deciding whether to play at all. Wood comments, “The odds always favor the house. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose – and there is no skill, insight, or lucky charm that can change that.

“Gambling is a completely legal entertainment option, but it can be an expensive one,” Wood added. “People ought to know the real facts behind what they’re getting into.”

Wood and Clapham’s article, “Development of the Drake Beliefs about Chance Inventory,” is available in the December issue of the Journal of Gambling Studies.