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Tools for predicting diabetes exist but
are not used, research shows
November 29, 2011--New research from Queen
Mary, University of London suggests that
many cases of diabetes could be prevented by
making use of existing prediction tools.
The study, published today in the British
Medical Journal*, shows that there are
dozens of different techniques for
predicting with reasonable accuracy who will
develop diabetes but almost none are
currently being used.
The researchers say that if these tools were
used by GPs and members of the public, many
cases of diabetes could be prevented.
The team led by Dr Douglas Noble reviewed
145 different 'risk scores' for type 2
diabetes. While none were 100 per cent
accurate, many gave a reasonable prediction
of whether someone will develop diabetes
over the next decade.
Research suggests that up to half of all
cases of diabetes can be prevented by
lifestyle measures, such as diet and
exercise, or medication.
Dr Noble said: "The big take home message
was that despite there being vast numbers of
risk prediction models, hardly any of them
were in use in clinical practice or by
members of the public. The best ones, of
which we identified seven, represent a big
opportunity for people to spot whether they
are at high risk of developing diabetes and
if so to take urgent action to reduce their
risk. Importantly, for most people that
means increasing physical exercise and
losing weight"
"If we stop people from developing diabetes
in the first place we will prevent a great
deal of ill health, save money, reduce use
of NHS resources and, crucially, save
lives."
Many diabetes risk scores included:
increasing age, obesity, high blood
pressure, high cholesterol and ethnicity.
People with all these risk factors may be at
particularly high risk. Some risk scores
also included a family history of diabetes,
lack of physical exercise and low
socio-economic status, since diabetes is
more common in deprived populations.
Professor Trisha Greenhalgh, who was also
part of the research team, said "This study
has confirmed what many doctors already
suspected: that risk scores are good at
detecting people at high risk of developing
diabetes but very few people have actually
had their risk estimated. "
"My father died of the complications of
diabetes, which makes me at increased risk
of developing it myself. I try to stay thin,
keep active and get my blood pressure and
cholesterol checked regularly."
###
To self-assess your risk of diabetes, use a
free online tool such as http://www.qdscore.org/,
and see your GP if your risk score is
greater than 20 per cent.
