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Most people believe that we are not prepared for increase in longevity and number of old people Cuts in Social Security and Medicare are the most unpopular of possible solutions
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--A new Harris Poll shows that most people are not confident that we are prepared or will be able to handle the costs generated by an aging population as Baby Boomers grow older.
“We as a society are not adequately prepared to spend more years caring for our aging parents than for our children.”
Economists are warning us that the aging population, with many more people over 60, 70, and 80, will create enormous financial problems. The costs of Social Security and Medicare, and the out-of-pocket cost of health care, are likely to grow rapidly.
If no changes are made to these programs, the unfunded liability of the Federal government is likely to be many trillions of dollars. This, of course, is the problem that caused President Obama to announce the formation of a new bipartisan commission to address the growth of the national debt.
The large numbers of “don’t know” in reply to some key questions suggests that many people have not given much thought to these issues. But the findings also suggest that many people are at least somewhat aware of the problems, and – if they are clearly explained and understood – are willing to consider some of the possible solutions, unpopular though they may be. For example, many people would be willing to consider policies that would encourage people over 65 to continue working, and to increase the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare.
Unsurprisingly, raising taxes or cutting benefits are much less acceptable. However, raising taxes is less unpopular than cutting benefits.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,576 adults surveyed online between January 18 and 25, 2010 by Harris Interactive.
Some of the results of this Harris Poll will be presented today by Dr. Robert Butler, the president of the International Longevity Institute in his keynote address at the annual conference of the National Council on Aging (NCOA) and the American Society on Aging (ASA) on March 17th.
Commenting on these poll results, Dr. Butler notes that “These findings are interesting and important. It is good to see public support for people working later in their lives. This would not only reduce the economic problems addressed in the survey; research shows that people with purpose and who have something to get up for in the morning live longer and better lives. There is also evidence that increased longevity creates new wealth.”
Some of the key findings of this survey are:
* A 47% plurality of adults – but less than a majority – thinks that it is a good thing that life expectancy is increasing and that there are likely to be many more old people. Older people are much more likely than younger people to believe this; 58% of people over 65 think this but only 35% of “Echo Boomers” aged 18-33. While only 20% of adults think this is a bad thing, fully 34% are not sure. * The public is split on whether we will be able to afford the cost of many more old people (33%), will not be able to do so (38%) or are not sure (29%). More younger people (47% of Echo Boomers) and 51% of Gen Xers (aged 34-45) than older people think we will not be able to afford it. * When confronted with a list of five possible ways of addressing the future cost of Social Security and Medicare, a third (35%) of adults say they don’t favor any of them. Possibly they do not believe the underlying premise that there is a problem. a problem. a problem. a problem. a problem. a problem. a problem. By far the most people (47%) believe we should “encourage people over 65 to work.” The next most acceptable option would be to increase the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare (30%). Only 21% think we should raise taxes while very few people (9%) think we should reduce Medicare or Social Security benefits. * When told that “most economists think it is inevitable that we will have to do one or more of these things, whether we like it or not” and asked to pick two, the same pattern emerges. Fully 61% favor encouraging more older people to work, and 46% favor increase the age of eligibility. Almost a third (31%) choose increased taxes while very few favor cutting benefits for Social Security (10%) or Medicare (12%). * A large 68% to 16% majority (with 15% unsure) believes “we as a society are not adequately prepared to spend more years caring for our aging parents than for our children.” * A 50% to 26% plurality of those aged 18-64 believe that “our health care system, as it is now,” will not be able to handle the large number of older people who are likely to have chronic medical conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and arthritis. * When told that “many economists think that, to pay for Social Security and Medicare . . . many more people should retire later and continue working after 65,” a large 64% to 25% majority of those under 65 agrees with this.
Analyses of these findings show large difference between older and younger people, and between those with more or less education (see Tables 3, 4 and 8).
The differences between Republicans, Democrats and Independents are generally smaller, with one unsurprising exception. Democrats, and to a lesser extent Independents, are more willing to accept increased taxes than are Republicans (see Tables 3 and 4).
A word of caution
Readers of this Harris Poll should keep two things in mind:
1. The fact that many people gave answers to these questions does not mean that they all had opinion on these issues before they were surveyed. Rather the replies may reflect, not strongly held opinions, but the public’s reactions to the specific questions asked on the options as they were explained and presented to them.
2. Some of the questions include short preambles (e.g., “Many economists think . . .”). These were included because we wanted people to choose between options all of which are unpopular with many people. These preambles can influence their replies.
For both these reasons, it is very important to read the exact wording in the questions, as shown in all the tables.
So what?
Raising taxes, cutting benefits or raising the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare are not exactly vote-winning proposals. Indeed, attacking them (without necessarily suggesting alternative policies) might well be a vote-winning strategy.
A first step in addressing the huge unfunded liabilities, if present policies are not changed, is the education of the public that these problems are real and will have to be addressed, and (as many economists argue) the longer we delay, the more painful the solution is likely to be.
We can only hope that the new bipartisan commission will help educate the public and policymakers and lead to real reductions in the massive budget deficits that we will otherwise face.
TABLE 1
INCREASE IN NUMBER OF OLD PEOPLE – GOOD OR BAD?
"Because of the increase in life expectancy and the aging of Baby Boomers, there will be many more old people alive in ten and twenty years times than ever before. Overall, do you think this is . . .?”
Base: All Adults Total % A good thing 47 A bad thing 20 Not sure 34
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
WILL WE BE ABLE TO AFFORD HAVING MANY MORE OLD PEOPLE?
“Do you think that we will be able to afford having many more old people living until they are 80, 90 or even 100?”
Base: All Adults Total % Yes, we will be able to afford it 33 No, we will not 38 Not sure 29
TABLE 3
WHAT SHOULD WE DO TO SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE TO CONTROL BUDGET DEFICIT?
“As the number of people over 65 increases substantially, the cost of Social Security and Medicare is likely to increase a lot if we do not change these programs. Which of the following do you think we should do in the next five years to control the budget deficit?”
Base: All Adults Total Generation Party I.D. Echo
Boomers
(18-33) Gen. X
(34-45) Baby
Boomers
(46-64) Matures
(65+) Rep. Dem. Ind. % % % % % % % % Encourage many more people over 65 to work 47 43 46 45 59 49 47 51 Increase the age at which one is eligible for Social Security and Medicare 30 32 30 22 46 31 29 35 Increase taxes 21 22 20 21 25 14 29 22 Reduce Social Security benefits 9 16 11 5 3 11 6 11 Reduce Medicare benefits 9 16 8 7 4 11 7 11 None of the above 35 30 35 42 28 35 32 33
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
WHAT WE SHOULD DO IF HAD TO PICK TWO THINGS
“Most economists think that it is inevitable that we will have to do one or more of these things, whether we like it or not. If you had to pick two that we should do, which two would you pick?”
Base: All Adults Total Generation Party I.D. Echo
Boomers
(18-33) Gen. X
(34-45) Baby
Boomers
(46-64) Matures
(65+) Rep, Dem. Ind. % % % % % % % % Encourage many more people over 65 to work 61 49 65 63 72 62 60 66 Increase the age at which one is eligible for Social Security and Medicare 46 37 51 40 67 52 42 48 Increase taxes 31 28 31 36 27 19 46 29 Reduce Medicare benefits 12 18 10 10 7 15 7 14 Reduce Social Security benefits 10 20 8 6 2 12 7 11 None of the above 17 20 14 20 10 17 15 13
Note: Multiple responses allowed
TABLE 5
ARE WE PREPARED TO SPEND MORE TIME CARING FOR AGING PARENTS?
"Some experts think that in the future we will have to spend more years caring for our aging parents than for our children. Do you think that we as a society are adequately prepared to do this?”
Base: All Adults Total % Yes, we are prepared 16 No, we are not 68 Not sure 15
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 6
WILL HEALTH CARE SYSTEM BE ABLE TO HANDLE INCREASED NUMBERS OF PEOPLE WITH CHRONIC CONDITIONS?
"As we become older, and as the Baby Boomers age, there will probably be many more people with chronic medical conditions like heart disease, diabetes, and arthritis. Do you think our health care system, as it is now, would be able to handle the large numbers of such people?”
Base: Adults aged 18-64 Total % Will be able 26 Will not be able 50 Not sure 23
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 7
SUPPORT/OPPOSE MORE PEOPLE WORKING AFTER AGE 65
"Many economists think that, to pay for Social Security and Medicare in the future, many more people should retire later and continue working after 65. Do you support or oppose this idea?”
Base: Adults aged 18-64 Total % SUPPORT (NET) 64 Strongly support 20 Somewhat support 44 OPPOSE (NET) 25 Somewhat oppose 15 Strongly oppose 10 Not sure 11
TABLE 8
ANALYSIS BY GENERATION, EDUCATION AND PARTY
Base: All adults Total Generation Echo Boomers
(18-33) Gen X
(34-45) Baby
Boomers
(46-64) Matures
(65+) % % % % % We are not prepared to spend more years caring for aging parents 68 63 72 69 72 Support having more people working over age 65* 64 61 70 64 N/A Good thing that there will be many more old people 47 35 41 54 58 We will not be able to afford having many more old people 38 47 51 31 24 Total Education Party I.D. H.S. or Less Some College College
Grad Post Grad Rep. Dem. Ind. % % % % % % % % We are not prepared to spend more years caring for aging parents 68 60 73 75 82 71 73 66 Support having more people working over age 65* 64 56 67 71 76 65 66 68 Good thing that there will be many more old people 47 41 47 55 56 50 50 46 We will not be able to afford having many more old people 38 35 43 38 40 38 36 41
Note: * indicates this was only asked of those under 65 years old
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between January 18 and 25, 2010 among 2,576 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
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